President Obama Can Still Win

Even with an anemic economic recovery, as of today, President Barack Obama has a better chance of winning reelection that he did a couple of months ago. Under his leadership, the national debt has skyrocketed and America’s credit rating has been downgraded. We had the bank bailout in 2009, $900 billion stimulus package and a signature healthcare legislation, but the unemployment rate is still over 8%. Middle-class families continue to see their wages dissipate, and over 46 million Americans are now living below the poverty line. According to the latest Census Bureau report, the U.S poverty rate has risen 15%, the highest since 1993.

With all of that in mind, President Obama is still in relatively good shape thanks in part to the Republican presidential candidates. An election that Republicans hope will be a referendum on President Obama’s economic policies and leadership is slowly turning into a debate about fairness and equality. The attacks by Gov. Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich on Gov. Romney’s business practices at Bain capital was a political blessing for President Obama who will much rather make the election a choice between who’s on the side of the middle-class and who isn’t. This is a fight he can win. Mitt Romney’s awkward $10,000 bet in a debate, and his 15% tax problem fits into President Obama's fairness narrative. In addition, Newt Gingrich’s work with Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac which Gov. Romney described as “influence peddling” also plays into the hands of a president that wants to frame the election around fairness and equality. In his State of the Union, he previewed what will be some of his arguments in the campaign.  

It was a politically astute speech.  He spoke like a populist. His tone was filled with passion and defiance, qualities that his liberal base will appreciate. “With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow,” he said. He also strategically positioned himself as a “fighter” for the middle-class. He talked about restoring manufacturing jobs and fairness. “It's not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they're heavily subsidized…I’m announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China… A return to the American values of fair play and shared responsibility will help us protect our people and our economy…We can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share.” You get the point. He wants to frame the choice in the election around a vision of equality and fairness. This argument could play well with independent voters.

On substance however, a lot of his proposals were too small, and too insufficient for the moment. A small business tax-cut here, and some investments there won’t solve the country’s biggest problems. Entitlement programs need reform. The tax code needs to be simplified. We need more investment in infrastructure. And more than ever, Washington has to get more serious about curtailing federal spending and passing a serious long-term debt plan (Simpson-Bowles comes to mind). President Obama won’t win reelection without speaking earnestly about these issues. Nevertheless, if anybody can pull off reelection in the current political climate and poor economic conditions, it will be this president. He is still a skilled campaigner, and the Republican candidates are making things easier for him.

Rick Perry Blew It

Remember last August when everyone was enamored by Gov. Rick Perry and believed he was the perfect alternative to Gov. Mitt Romney? That’s because he was. His presidential announcement speech in August was quite impressive. He introduced himself to the country in a warm and compelling way: “I am the product of a place called Paint Creek. Doesn’t have a zip code. It’s too small to be called a town…” He talked about the roots of his values: “What I learned growing up on the farm was a way of life that was centered on hard work, and on faith and on thrift. Those values have stuck with me my whole life.” Then he revealed his rationale for running: “It’s time to get America working again.”

Gov. Perry was born into a working-class family. He’s the son of tenant farmers from Paint Creek, Texas, worked on the family farm, devoted himself to the Boys Scouts, served his country in the Air Force, and was the first member of his family to attend college. His story is that of humble beginnings, hard work, perseverance, public service and the American Dream. He has a simple message: government stifles economic growth because it is too big, too intrusive and I will bring it under control by cutting spending, lowering taxes and eliminating burdensome regulations just like I did in Texas. Under his governorship, Texas’ economy grew twice the rate of the national average and gained more than one million net new jobs.

With his personal biography, jobs record in Texas, and conservative bona fides, you would think he’s the right candidate to challenge Gov. Romney. But he finished fifth in the Iowa Caucuses. So what happened? Well, the debates happened. The Rick Perry that came across in his announcement speech as a firm, competent, and decisive leader with a compelling personal story has been unable to find his footing in debates. From not being able to clearly articulate an attack against Gov. Romney to not remembering the third federal government agency he wants to eliminate, he has been unable to present a clear narrative. As soon as he began to look incompetent on the debate stage, voters began to think he didn’t belong on stage. But beyond the gaffes in debates, Gov. Perry hasn’t been able to draw a clear contrast between himself and his opponents. He has ceded the jobs message to Gov. Romney even though he has a stellar record of job creation in Texas. When you listen to Gov. Romney speak, if you wait long enough, you’re bound to hear the words: “private sector experience” “jobs” “economy.” From day one, he has been positioning himself as the private sector job creator that will fix the economy. He has talked about it so much for so long that voters have internalized it. That’s message discipline. That’s what Gov. Perry has lacked throughout the campaign.

Moreover, he has a personal story that he hasn’t talked about nearly enough. With his life story, he can persuade voters that he understands the plight of working families struggling to make ends meet in the current economic climate and believes in the resilience of America to bounce back to economic prosperity under his leadership. Now I know he’s still in the race, and plans to compete in South Carolina. But his moment has passed. He had his chance and he blew it.